Building ecosystems and working in an agile way can be both wonderful and deeply rewarding. However, it’s not a one-size-fits-all solution, nor is it always the most effective approach. Knowing when and how to use agile methods is just as important as the methods themselves.
This is where the Cynefin model comes in—a practical framework that helps you understand different types of decision-making environments and the approaches that work best for each.
What is the Cynefin Model?
Developed by Dave Snowden, the Cynefin model (pronounced "kuh-NEV-in") is a sense-making framework that categorizes situations into five decision spaces: Clear (previously called Simple or Obvious), Complicated, Complex, Chaotic, and Disorder. Each space represents a different type of challenge or problem and requires a different way of working to navigate effectively. Let’s break them down:
1. Clear (formerly Simple or Obvious): Best practices rule
What it is: Clear problems are straightforward. Cause and effect are obvious, and there’s an established best practice to solve them.
Examples: Managing payroll, following safety procedures, or performing routine tasks like scheduling meetings.
How to work here:
Follow standard operating procedures.
Use established rules or guidelines.
Delegate tasks to ensure efficiency.
Avoid overcomplicating things—stick to what works.
Agile methods aren’t needed here; following well-documented processes is sufficient.
2. Complicated: Expertise is key
What it is: Complicated problems are still solvable but require analysis, expertise, or technical knowledge to figure out the best approach. Cause and effect exist but aren’t immediately obvious.
Examples: Engineering projects, budgeting for large-scale initiatives, or diagnosing a technical problem.
How to work here:
Bring in experts or specialists to analyze the problem.
Use structured decision-making tools like scenario planning or cost-benefit analysis.
Be methodical but remain flexible as new information emerges.
Agile methods might help in small iterations, but this domain often benefits from structured planning and expert input.
3. Complex: The ecosystem sweet spot
What it is: Complex problems are messy and unpredictable. Cause and effect can only be understood in hindsight, and there’s no single right answer. You need to experiment and learn as you go.
Examples: Building ecosystems, leading culture change, innovating new products, or responding to shifting market dynamics.
How to work here:
Use agile or iterative approaches to test and learn.
Run small experiments (prototypes or pilots) to gather insights.
Encourage collaboration across diverse stakeholders to uncover creative solutions.
Accept uncertainty as part of the process and focus on making progress instead of achieving perfection.
This is where the agile way of working truly shines—it’s built for environments where flexibility and learning are essential. This is the ecosystem sweet spot!
4. Chaotic: Act fast to stabilize
What it is: Chaotic situations are emergencies where everything feels out of control. Cause and effect relationships are nonexistent or impossible to determine, and quick action is needed to regain stability.
Examples: Crisis management, natural disasters, or PR disasters.
How to work here:
Act decisively to establish order (even if imperfect).
Communicate clearly and take immediate steps to stabilize the situation.
Once stability is restored, transition to a more structured or agile approach.
Agile methods are too slow for chaos—this space demands quick decisions and strong leadership.
5. Disorder: Figure out where you are
What it is: Disorder is the space where you don’t yet know which of the other categories applies. It often feels overwhelming because there’s no clarity on how to approach the problem.
How to work here:
Pause to gather information.
Break the problem into smaller parts and categorize them into Clear, Complicated, Complex, or Chaotic.
Once you know where you are, apply the appropriate working style.
Why does this matter for Ecosystem-style working?
Agile, ecosystem-style working thrives in complex environments where experimentation, adaptability, and collaboration are key. It’s not meant for all situations:
In clear and complicated spaces, structured methods or expert solutions often work better.
In chaotic situations, speed and decisive action take priority over iteration.
Knowing the right decision space helps you avoid wasting time on methods that don’t fit the problem. For example:
Don’t overthink a clear problem with endless brainstorming.
Don’t try to solve a chaotic crisis with careful experimentation—it’s about stabilizing first.
Don’t impose rigid plans on a complex system where agility and adaptability are needed.
Applying the Cynefin Model to Your Work
Assess the situation: Use the Cynefin model to identify whether the challenge is clear, complicated, complex, chaotic, or disordered.
Choose the right approach: Align your working style with the decision space: rules for clear problems, expertise for complicated ones, agility for complex challenges, and quick action for chaos.
Adjust as needed: Remember that situations can shift over time. A chaotic situation might stabilize into a complicated one, and a complex project might eventually become clear as you learn.
Final thoughts
The Cynefin model is a powerful tool to help you navigate the varied landscapes of decision-making. By understanding where you are, you can focus your energy and resources on the most effective way to move forward—whether it’s following a rulebook, seeking expert advice, experimenting with agile methods, or stabilizing chaos.
And even though I LOVE ecosystem-style working, it is not always the answer. In the right context, however, it can transform the way you and your team work together. Use Cynefin as your guide, and you’ll know exactly when and how to embrace it. If you ever feel stuck, don’t hesitate to reach out—I’d be happy to offer some advice! coaching@debbiebaute.com